BEYOND THE
TIPPING POINTS
Climate Change, Toxics in the Air & Water,
Biodiversity Loss, and Land Degradation:
#ThisIsZeroHour, and now, we’re all on Notice.
Courtesy of the Alliance
of World Scientists
Please note: All graphs
end at, or prior to, 2016. This data is evidence-based,
not in any way
predicted, modeled, or contrived. All values prior to 1992,
the date of publication
of the first warning, are in grey, post-1992 in black.
Part 1: Beyond the Tipping Points – Core Article
All of us have been put on notice. By November 13, 2017, the
date of its publication, over 15,000 scientists from 184 nations had already
signed on to the "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice',
spearheaded by William J. Ripple, Professor of Ecology at Oregon State
University. It warns about impending disaster from Climate Change and
Environmental Dystopia.
The first notice, to which Ripple referred, was issued 25 years
earlier in 1992, with the title, "World Scientists' Warning to
Humanity", sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists, and signed
on to by over 1,700 independent scientists, including, at that time, most of
the living Nobel Laureates in the Sciences.
“Human beings and the
natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and
often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not
checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we
wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the
living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are
urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.”
To quote the Washington Post
regarding this warning, ”They said humans had pushed Earth's ecosystems to their breaking
point and were well on the way to ruining the planet. The letter listed
environmental impacts like they were biblical plagues — stratospheric ozone
depletion, air and water pollution, the collapse of fisheries and loss of soil
productivity, deforestation, species loss and catastrophic global climate
change caused by the burning of fossil fuels. “If not checked,” wrote the
scientists, led by particle physicist and Union of Concerned
Scientists co-founder Henry Kendall, “many
of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human
society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world,
that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.”
A direct quote from this 1992
document, “Our massive tampering with the world's interdependent web of
life—coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species
loss, and climate change—could trigger widespread adverse effects, including
unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and
dynamics we only imperfectly understand. Uncertainty over the extent of these
effects cannot excuse complacency or delay in facing the threats.”
Their message was, “that in order to prevent
widespread misery caused by catastrophic damage to the biosphere, humanity must
practice more environmentally sustainable alternatives to business-as-usual. Our vital importance and role comes from
scientists’ unique responsibility as
stewards of human knowledge and champions
of evidence-based decision-making.”
These
scientists went on in 1992 to make 5 recommendations, the first and probably
the most urgent:
“We must bring environmentally damaging
activities under control to restore and protect the integrity of the earth's
systems we depend on. We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to more
benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the
pollution of our air and water.
Priority must be given to the development of energy sources matched to Third
World needs—small-scale and relatively easy to implement. We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of
agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal
species.”
The 1992 document makes this statement. “We the undersigned, senior members of the world's
scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great
change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required, if vast
human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be
irretrievably mutilated.”
25 years later, many thousands of scientists, who had decided to
sign the World Scientists' Warning To Humanity: A Second Notice, formed
the Alliance of World Scientists, ”the only independent, grass-roots organization
comprised of scientists from around the world committed to the well-being of
humanity and the planet.”
Their ‘Second Notice’ published November 13, 2017, starts with
this assessment of how badly we had done so far:
“Since 1992, with the exception of stabilizing the stratospheric
ozone layer, humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally
solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them
are getting far worse (See the graphs at the top of this post). Especially
troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to
rising GHGs (Greenhouse Gases) from burning fossil fuels (Hansen et al.
2013), deforestation (Keenan et al. 2015), and agricultural production—
particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption (Ripple et al. 2014).
Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly
540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at
least committed to extinction by the
end of this century. Humanity is now being given a second notice, as
illustrated by these alarming trends (See the graphs). We
are jeopardizing our future by not reining in our intense, but
geographically and demographically uneven, material consumption, and by not
perceiving continued rapid population growth as a primary driver behind many
ecological and even societal threats (Crist et al. 2017). By failing to
adequately limit population growth, reassess the role of an economy rooted in
growth, reduce greenhouse gases, incentivize renewable energy, protect habitat,
restore ecosystems, curb pollution, halt defaunation, and constrain invasive
alien species, humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard
our imperiled biosphere. As most political leaders respond to pressure,
scientists, media influencers, and lay citizens must insist that their
governments take immediate action as a moral imperative to current and
future generations of human and other life.”
So, the
question is, are these many thousands of scientists, who signed onto this
warning, telling us that we are beyond the point of no return? Are they saying
we are beyond the tipping point?
No. First of all, as we covered in an earlier article, 'Closer to the Tipping Point’, in our discussion on Abrupt Climate Change, every mini-ecosystem, every pond, every stream, every field, every forest, has its tipping point, beyond which, it is so degraded, it may be unable to sustain life. We discussed how our goal must be to avoid, or, at least, delay, the reaching of these many critical climate and ecosystem tipping points as best as we can. Far from saying we are beyond the tipping points and there is no use taking action, these scientists, by stepping out and staking their reputations on it, and signing this document, are encouraging dramatic action. That is the point of making these dire warnings, to, hopefully, spur action.
No. First of all, as we covered in an earlier article, 'Closer to the Tipping Point’, in our discussion on Abrupt Climate Change, every mini-ecosystem, every pond, every stream, every field, every forest, has its tipping point, beyond which, it is so degraded, it may be unable to sustain life. We discussed how our goal must be to avoid, or, at least, delay, the reaching of these many critical climate and ecosystem tipping points as best as we can. Far from saying we are beyond the tipping points and there is no use taking action, these scientists, by stepping out and staking their reputations on it, and signing this document, are encouraging dramatic action. That is the point of making these dire warnings, to, hopefully, spur action.
As Jamie Margolin, 16 year old lead organizer of the 'Zero
Hour" Youth Climate March in Washington, DC, with sister marches in other
cities, points out, 'Acceptors' of the
science of Climate Change, who rationalize inaction on the basis that it is too
late to do anything that would substantially change the outcome, are just as
bad, as destructive, from her perspective, as the Deniers of Climate Change.
Jamie is also 1 of 13 plaintiffs in Our Children’s Trust ‘Kids’ Climate Trial’
in Washington State, suing the State for knowingly risking their human rights
to their ability to live in a habitable world. Later in this report, we’ll cover
the 9 States’ and the Federal (scheduled 10/29/2018) ‘Kids’ Climate Trials’,
and the ‘Zero Hour’ Youth Climate March (7/21/2018).
How could anyone look a teen in the face, and tell her or
him that there is no reason for hope? These kids have their whole lives in
front of them. Many of them, as young as they are, along with their families,
are already victims of Climate Change. They have already seen it with their own
eyes, having survived the destruction of storms, floods, mudslides, and
wildfires. You can’t fool these kids. They get it. Regarding Climate Change
Deniers, they know ‘BullShit’ when they see and hear it.
Since the publication of the 2017 'Second Warning" in
November, 2017, over 4,000 additional scientists have signed on, bringing the total
to close to 20,000 from all over the world, more than 184 nations. It would be
ludicrous for anyone to believe that so many scientists from every corner of
the world could be engaged in a 'left wing conspiracy', as right wingers and
business interests allege. Another allegation made by the Deniers of Climate
Change is that these scientists are making this all up for financial gain.
Though some Climate Scientists might possibly benefit from the ascension of the
subject of Climate Change, the overwhelming majority, of the 20,000 signers, are
specialists in other scientific disciplines, chemists, biologists, physicists,
etc., even social scientists, and would have nothing to gain by the signing of
this document. Some of the signers might actually be putting themselves and
their careers in jeopardy with governments, courts, employers, and law
enforcement, if they are found to be encouraging actions that might be seen to
be contrary to business interests. Many climate and environmental activists
have been murdered in recent years for their activism in more than a few
nations. So why would scientists risk their reputations, and, in some
cases perhaps, their lives, by the signing of this document?
The
answer is, besides being scientists, these people are human beings. They
have children and grandchildren, nieces and nephews, aunts and uncles, brothers
and sisters, parents, and friends, of whom, looking at this evidence, they are
genuinely concerned. Scientists, just like non-scientists, recognize the beauty
of nature and this wonderful world in which we live, and for everyone's
benefit, would like to see future generations enjoy it as much as they have
been able to in their lives.
And, if most of the signatories are not Climate Scientists, if
they have no expertise in this area, on what basis did they make the decision
to sign this document? The answer to this question is easy. They are
scientists, and are basing their decision to sign on the empirical evidence
represented by the graphs in this report, which you'll note, all end in 2016.
These graphs are simply data on what has already taken place, not projections
of what may happen in the future, though the trajectories represented, in all
but one, clearly predict, if no action is taken that might change that trajectory,
certain disaster, and soon.
Part 2: Review of the nine
graphs in
World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
Here
are a few notes on each of these graphs, and this is the interactive part. Take
a look at each of these graphs, and draw your own conclusions. Is the
trajectory sustainable, if we do nothing
to change it? For ease of reference, we’ll reprint the graphs here.
Courtesy of the Alliance
of World Scientists
Please note: All graphs
end at, or prior to, 2016. This data is evidence-based,
not in any way
predicted, modeled, or contrived. All values prior to 1992,
the date of publication
of the first warning, are in grey, post-1992 in black.
a.
Ozone Depletors
Out of
the nine graphs, this is the only one that shows vast improvement. This is an
example of the world actually getting it together and doing something
beneficial for the planet and everyone on it. The world recognized the danger
of losing the ozone layer protecting us from dangerous solar radiation, and
successfully remediated the problem. But don't forget your sunscreen. Even now,
there is less protection from sunburn than is safe for long exposure.
b.
Fresh Water Resources per capita (1,000 cubic meters)
Since
1992, our Fresh Water Resources are down 26%, and the trajectory seems to be continuing
downwards towards drought and scarcity in many parts of the world the Middle East, India, Australia, Africa and the
American West. In many parts of the world, there simply isn't enough water to
go around. In some areas, groundwater, lakes, and reservoirs are alarmingly
receding, due to overuse, and in more and more cases threatening to go dry. The
wasteful practices of industrial agriculture are draining the surface waters,
ground waters, and aquifers, and polluting the water with agropoisons, and
nitrates, and phosphates, causing algae blooms in lakes and oceans and Dead
Zones. Due to toxics in the water, more and more people in every part of the
world are losing fresh, clean tap water in their homes, the mark of a modern
home.
c.
Reconstructed Marine Catch (metric tons/year)
Despite
ever more extreme forms of fishing, with long lines, gill nets, factory boats,
deep sea trawling, with 90% bycatch thrown back dead, whether legal or illegal,
and despite more and more money spent in fuel and other costs to go further
beyond Dead Zones to reach the fish, the catch is now diminishing. Protecting
our fisheries is essential. Climate change is causing migrations of fish
disturbing food chains,
and
robbing fisheries of some species. 2,600,000,000 people rely on fish as their
principal source of protein, and more billions rely on fish as part of their
diet. Hundreds of millions of fisherman and their families rely on fishing for
income and food. Ninety percent of the big fish are already gone, and
acidification from high levels of CO2 absorbed into the water is harming the
development of shells and plankton, the base of the ocean food chains. Coral
reefs, the rainforests of the seas, just 0.2% of the area but 25% of species,
are bleaching and dying from the heat in the ocean.
d.
Dead Zones (number of affected regions)
More
and more Dead Zones are developing in lakes and oceans and at the mouth of many
of the world's major rivers. The reason they are called Dead Zones is that
these large areas of bays and oceans (and lakes) can no longer support life.
Most animals cannot survive without oxygen. This is what causes them.. Nitrates
and phosphates from massive amounts of synthetic fertilizers, and or sewage
gets into the water, even more with the massive downpours of climate change. Nitrates
and phosphates are the perfect food for algae blooms, also aided by the warmth
in the water, the algae take over with massive green (or red) blooms, and then die, taking all the oxygen out of the
water emitting CO2, and eventually only methane, from the decomposition of the dead
algae, dead fish and all the organisms that had depended on oxygen for life.
e.
Total Forest (billion hectares -one hectare=2.5 acres approximately)
We
continue to be losing more and more trees each year, felled, or burned
intentionally for land, for development, agriculture, and mining. Hundred foot
wide swaths of forest are cut for right-of-ways for more and more pipelines and
power lines, and for new roads. That fragments the land. And that fragmentation
is harming the ability of all large mammals who need IFLs, Intact Forest
Landscapes, and more and more species are facing extinction. We need trees for
biodiversity. And we need trees, and organic agriculture (conventional ag
produces more CO2 and other GHG’s than the CO2 it absorbs) We need trees as a
major source of oxygen, and as long as we need to burn fossil fuels, we better
have trees to suck up some of the CO2 emissions. In Closer to The Tipping Point, we talk in detail about the many intersections between Forests and
Climate Change.
f.
Vertebrate Species Abundance (% of 1970)
Fish
and Birds are Vertebrates, Too. Any animal with a backbone is a vertebrate
species, and their abundance is diminishing. We spoke about fragmentation of
Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs) as one of the causes. But there are many other
causes, including poisoning by EDCs, Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals. All
vertebrates have endocrine systems much like ours including estrogenic and androgenic
hormones, and can be poisoned by toxic chemicals. Climate Change is causing
migration, disturbing food chains, and harming ecosystems. Biodiversity matters,
because every plant and animal species provides ecosystem services, and the
removal of any one of them causes reverberations down each of the food chains.
In the U.S., the Republican Congress and Senate is doing all they can to
undermine the Endangered Species Act, while so many animals are becoming endangered.
g.
Carbon Dioxide-CO2-Emissions (giga-tons/year – one giga-ton= one billion tons)
CO2
levels are rising to above 410 ppm. That is well documented at the Mauna Loa in
Hawaii and observatories around the world. However, the rumor is, and as has
been noted in such studies as the National Climate Assessment, that emissions
seem to be flat-lining during the past two or three years and had,only this
year increased, as if carbon emissions
had really turned a corner.. I contend that's just due to false reporting from
nations that wanted to show how well they were complying with the Paris
Agreement. No nation includes in their accounting of carbon emissions the massive tonnage of CO2 emitted from the huge wildfires, or the CO2 emitted from burning Biomass for electricity, or from conventional Big Ag, or from pouring concrete and cement. The US doesn't account for the massive tonnage of CH4 (Methane) pouring from all the 100s of 1000s of fracking wells, a powerful greenhouse gas, as part of their stated carbon emissions.
h.
Temperature Change (degrees Celsius-conversion factor to Fahrenheit-x1.8)
Year
after year, it's getting hotter and hotter, just as predicted. 2017 was the
hottest year on record. When it gets hotter, people and animals need more water
to survive. And with less and less safe, clean water available, people have to
choose between toxic poisoning, disyntery, and dehydration. With ever scarcer
water supplies in many areas it's getting more and more difficult to survive. If
temperatures keep rising, it'll make whole regions uninhabitable, and cause
massive evaporation and desertification, and could cause massive human
migration, billions of refugees. Sea Level Rise caused by a warming Arctic and
Antarctic, warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, will surely also
cause massive migrations with billions of climate refugees, if we don’t stem
the massive pouring of fossil fuel and conventional agriculture greenhouse gas
emissions.
i.
Population (humans and ruminants-cows, buffalos, sheep, goats)
This
graph is really two graphs, one for ruminants, and one for humans.
Ruminants
- The world is raising more and more livestock, now over four billion ruminants,
straining the world's resources and increasing the mostly GMO feed requirements
and emitting vast quantities of methane emissions.
Humans –
‘Exponential Growth in a Finite World’ is not sustainable. We discussed this
subject in depth in part 10 of Living in a Toxic World, about a fascinating
study published in 1972, which became the best selling environmental book ever
with sales of over 12 million, entitled, The Limits to Growth. This
study was sponsored by an international group of luminaries, including the late
Renaissance Man, Pierre Trudeau, father of Justin Trudeau, and was performed by
a team of Frisbee playing scientists and computer experts with a mean age of 26
and a half, on what we believe was the first computerized environmental modeled
graphs. They projected into the future and proved their point that unlimited
exponential growth of population, and various other factors, on a finite planet,
is not sustainable. They modeled 12 different scenarios from Doomsday scenarios
to Equilibrium. This was the real first warning, not the World Scientist's Warning to Humanity from 1992. This warning was
20 years earlier.
Part 3: 2018 National Climate
Assessment – Science versus Policy
In 1990,
a Democratic but Bipartisan, Congress and Senate voted in a new law, the Global
Change Research Act, signed by the Republican first President Bush, which
mandates a periodic scientific assessment of the planet, and of the development
of climate change, and of how we are faring across the USA. The Third National
Climate Assessment, published in 2014 was shocking with its assessment of our
vulnerability and the ravages of climate change. The Fourth NCA (National
Climate Assessment) was published in November, 2017, and shows the situation of
our Climate, and its effects on Ecosystems, worsening in every area, that was
covered in our post, Closer to the Tipping Point, our oceans, our
forests, our wetlands, our grasslands, just about everywhere.
The NCA
explores what has already been experienced in each area of our country in the
way of climate change, and makes predictions, based on various emissions
scenarios. Will our emissions continue to ramp up? Or will they slow down?
Before any scientist can model any future scenario, one needs to enter the
answers to those questions.
.
In
August of 2017, the fifth and final draft of the NCA, prepared by NOAA, was
sent out to scientists in every one of the 13 federal agencies that were
required to approve its publication. It was promptly leaked to the New York Times, presumably by a scientist or scientists, who, knowing Trump
and his cabinet members, and the majority of the House and Senate and powerful
industrial groups and all the Koch funded denial groups like Heartland,
Heritage, AFP, etc., these scientists never believed it would ever get
published.
They
feared the report would be squashed by Trump and his people, with their anti-environmental
mindset, so they leaked it. Once the draft was leaked, once it was available on
the internet for all to see, the cat was out of the bag, and obviously the
Trump administration, realizing that they could no longer prevent its release,
since it was already basically out, so they decided to publish it, rather than
make a scene, by not publishing it.
But
based on multiple leaked memos and emails, we have found that they published
this report, fully intending to "ignore" it. U.S. Policy has become:
Ignoring Science. Knowing how vigorously Trump, Pence and all of Trump's people,
and most of the Republican leaders, unanimously defend the denial of Climate Change,
it is scandalous and hypocritical that this report, that definitely confirms the
real science of Climate Change, was published under the auspices of:
1. Pruitt's EPA
2. Zinke's Department of Interior
3. Perry's Department of Energy
4. Then Tillerson's, Now Pompeo's State
Department
5. Ross' Department of Commerce
6. Purdue's Department of
Agriculture
7. Mattis' Department of Defense
8. Azar's Department of Health and
Human Services
9. Department of Transportation
10. NASA
11. Smithsonian Institution
12. USAID (United States Agency for
International Development)
13. National Science Foundation
The
leadership of these 13 important governmental and executive branch agencies,
other than perhaps the last five listed, that vigorously deny climate change,
and, in some cases, won't even admit that CO2 is a bad thing, have endorsed a report
that affirms the exact opposite in clear language. Written by the cream of the
crop of the U.S. Government's scientists, these political executive branch leaders’
only excuse for publishing science that clearly states the opposite of what
they are espousing, is that they intend to ignore it, borne out by the leaked
memos and emails.
That
sends out a loud statement, that Science is no longer relevant, and that there
is not any more the need for Policy in accordance to Science. They are even
challenging the accepted and revered academic peer- review process on
scientific studies, as if it somehow implies collusion between scientists.
Those of you that know the depths of ignorance to which the Deniers are willing to go, have got to read the detail in this Executive Summary of the CSSR (the Climate Science Special Report), the first volume of the NCA, and like me, your jaw will hang open by the extent to which this conservative, in its estimates, but very thorough, scientific document, diverges from the Cabinet and Republican leaders stated views.
Those of you that know the depths of ignorance to which the Deniers are willing to go, have got to read the detail in this Executive Summary of the CSSR (the Climate Science Special Report), the first volume of the NCA, and like me, your jaw will hang open by the extent to which this conservative, in its estimates, but very thorough, scientific document, diverges from the Cabinet and Republican leaders stated views.
We’ll include this quick Executive Summary of the new
NCA’s findings, so you’ll be able to see for yourself, that the science in this
report backs up the urgency of the ‘World Scientists Warning to Humanity: A
Second Notice’, covered earlier, in every respect.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Highlights of the Findings of the
U.S. Global Change Research Program -
Climate Science Special Report
(CSSR) - Volume 1 of 2017 NCA4 –
Fourth National Climate Assessment –
Executive Summary
The climate of the United States is
strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below
highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States
and the globe.
Global annually averaged surface air
temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years
(1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern
civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking,
climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the
warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue
over climate timescales.
This assessment concludes, based on
extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities,
especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last
century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent
of the observational evidence.
In addition to warming, many other
aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human
activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the
world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic
temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice;
rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water
vapor.
For example, global average
sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half
(about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change
has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a
rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least
2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United
States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more
than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.
Global average sea levels are
expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years
and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled
out. Sea level rise will be higher than
the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.
Changes in the characteristics of
extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastructure,
agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy
rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and
globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed
changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast.
Heatwaves have become more frequent
in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold
waves are less frequent. Recent
record-setting hot years are projected to become common in the near future for
the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual
average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F
(1.0°C) for the period 1901–2016; over the next few decades (2021–2050),
annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United
States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all
plausible future climate scenarios.
The incidence of large forest fires
in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and
is projected to further increase in
those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional
ecosystems.
Annual trends toward earlier spring
melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western
United States and these trends are expected
to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water
resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological
drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century.
The magnitude of climate change
beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse
gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in
annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach
9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant
reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature
could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less.
The global atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million
(ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global
average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over
this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not
experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus
that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the
greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are
potentially large and irreversible.
The
observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been
consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission
growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even
if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would
limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above
preindustrial levels.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As I
mentioned, this is a very conservative report; the data in the following graphs
are conservative estimates. For instance, sea level rise could be far worse.
Also, we contend that the last several sentences in this executive summary,
that, until the increase last year, carbon emissions had leveled off for a few
years, are a product of false reporting, skewed by the participants of the
Paris Agreement and even the U.S. and the EIA’s (Energy Information Agency) desire
to make it look like that. For an example, the IEA, International Energy
Agency, gets its information on Russia's emissions, from Rosneft (Russia's
State Oil Company), and ultimately from Putin, and so, one may doubt its
veracity. We also doubt the veracity of the reporting of the U.S.A.'s EIA,
under Trump, Obama, and Bush, since the fracking boom began.
.
Also,
neither the U.S.A. nor Russia, nor any country, includes the carbon emissions
of the mammoth and growing wildfires each year. No country includes emissions
from burning Biomass for electricity, on the absurd basis that burning trees
for energy doesn't increase carbon in the biosphere, because trees absorbed
carbon to grow in the first place. That is preposterous. Burning Biomass is no
less increasing the carbon in our atmosphere, than the forest fires, or the
burning of fossil fuels.
The
fact is that research stations all over the globe have come up with recent
readings of over 410 ppm. The CO2 is increasing in our atmosphere, whether the
conservative, approved by 13 federal agencies, report wants to admit it or not,
when they stated that the levels had flat-lined in the final sentence of the
executive summary on this report, as though the world had turned a corner on
CO2 emissions, but again, they based
their statement on the evidence, the data, which we believe is skewed.
Now I'd
like to take the following graphs published in the NCA, and turn them into an interactive exercise, by asking you the
following question, Which world would you choose to live in, the world
represented by the red line in each of these four graphs, the most extreme of
the scenarios on carbon emissions, or the world represented by the gray line,
the least extreme scenario? You'll note the past and present line in each graph
is made up of single data points, and the future is represented by one of four
scenarios or models.
The
scenario depicted in red is unfortunately the path we are currently following
(the Trump path, though Obama was not much better) of unmitigated fossil fuel
exploration, extraction (fracking and mining on land and sea), and export.
Regarding export, whether it’s burned here, or burned elsewhere, makes no
difference to the climate.
Unless
we sideline a good portion of the world's reserves of oil, gas, and coal and
not burn it, it is agreed by most scientists and environmentalists, that this
red line projection in these graphs, or far worse, is inevitable. And if we
extract it, and put it in pipelines, it will eventually all be burned. This we
can guarantee.
I say
that it could be far worse than what’s depicted in these graphs, because many
of us believe that in order to make it acceptable, just like in the case of the
IPCCC report, the UN's climate report, which was the foundation of the Paris
Agreement, these estimates would have to be very conservative, and could very
well prove to be on the low side. The gray line of least emissions is possible
to achieve, but recognize that it would involve lifestyle changes. Or perhaps
you might choose one of the scenarios in the middle.
"Which world would you choose to live in, and to leave to your children and grandchildren?"
"Which world would you choose to live in, and to leave to your children and grandchildren?"
All Graphs Courtesy of U.S. Global Change Research Program -
Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) - Volume 1 of 2017 NCA4 –
Fourth National Climate Assessment
The final pictures and graph we’re including, from the NCA, is about Arctic Sea Ice
Extent, comparing 1984 to 2016. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest
of the Northern Hemisphere. Not only is the extent diminishing, but the
thickness and age of the ice in the Arctic Ice Cap is vastly diminishing. 90%
of the Arctic Sea Ice is now less than two years old, which was very different
in 1984. The Albedo Effect of white ice reflecting heat back into space, is
diminishing, as the white snow and ice is being replaced by blue water, green
trees and vegetation, and brown earth, which absorbs more heat, meaning that
the Feedback Effect of that will melt more ice and permafrost on land and
underwater. If you’ve ever walked on spongy melting permafrost, you’d
understand that any pipeline over it is no longer safe, with the very spongy
footing. Pipelines are not very flexible, and could very well spill. Another feedback
effect is that melting permafrost yields methane, the same dangerous greenhouse
gas they frack for, and burn on your stove, and it’s bubbling up in the water
from under the Arctic Shelf and is seeping out of the Arctic Tundra, and making
the world even warmer.
Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) - Volume 1 of 2017 NCA4 –
Fourth National Climate Assessment
Part 4: 2018
IPBES Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
“The Earth’s life support system is failing.
Nearly everywhere, the various forms of non-human life are in decline,
according to a series of landmark international reports released (March 23,
2018).
“Biodiversity (plant and animal) – the essential variety of
life forms on Earth – continues to decline in every region of the world,
significantly reducing nature’s capacity to contribute to people’s well-being.
This alarming trend endangers economies, livelihoods, food security and the
quality of life of people everywhere, according to four landmark science
reports released, written by more than 550 leading experts, from over 100
countries.
“The result of three years of work, the four regional
assessments of biodiversity and ecosystem services cover the Americas, Asia and
the Pacific, Africa, as well as Europe and Central Asia – the entire planet
except the poles and the open oceans. The assessment reports were approved
by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Services (IPBES), in MedellÃn, Colombia, (on March 23, 2018) at the 6th session
of its Plenary. IPBES has 129 State Members (nations).
“Biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people sound, to
many people, academic and far removed from our daily lives,” said the Chair of
IPBES, Sir Robert Watson, “Nothing could be further from the truth – they are
the bedrock of our food, clean water and energy. They are at the heart not only
of our survival, but of our cultures, identities and enjoyment of life. The
best available evidence, gathered by the world’s leading experts, points us now
to a single conclusion: we must act to halt and reverse the unsustainable use
of nature – or risk not only the future we want, but even the lives we
currently lead. Fortunately, the evidence also shows that we know how to
protect and partially restore our vital natural
assets.”
“The extensively peer-reviewed IPBES assessment reports
focus on providing answers to key questions for each of the four regions,
including: why is biodiversity important, where are we making progress, what
are the main threats and opportunities for biodiversity and how can we adjust
our policies and institutions for a more sustainable future?
“In every region, with the exception
of a number of positive examples where lessons can be learned, biodiversity and
nature’s capacity to contribute to people are being degraded, reduced and lost
due to a number of common pressures – habitat stress; overexploitation and
unsustainable use of natural resources; air, land and water pollution;
increasing numbers and impact of invasive alien species and climate change,
among others.”
The
last two words in the title of this report on Biodiversity, and in the name of
this organization, that wrote it, are ‘Ecosystem Services’, and that is key.
Whether you consider yourself a religious person, as do the vast majority of
the world's billions of humans, and care about God's creations, like the Pope
and religious leaders of every religion do, or whether you are an atheist, but
subscribe to science, you will recognize that Biodiversity in every animal,
every plant, even insects, provide ecosystem services.
Every
species, every insect matters, because of the ‘ecosystem services’ it provides.
If plants or animals are removed from ecosystems by extinction, or by migration
due to Climate Change, or by fragmentation by roads, pipelines, electrical
lines or development, the ecosystem services that plant or animal offers is no
longer performed, disturbing food chains with reverberations down the line.
Much of this is conveyed in our article, ‘Closer to the Tipping Point’, where
we also discuss climate impacts on Biodiversity and Ecosystems. The aspect of Crop
Biodiversity Loss is covered in, ‘Messing with Mother Nature’, where Climate is
an essential part.
Part 5: 2018
IPBES Assessment Report on Land Degradation and Restoration
“Worsening land degradation caused by human activities is
undermining the well-being of two fifths of humanity, driving species
extinctions and intensifying climate change. It is also a major contributor to
mass human migration and increased conflict, according to the world’s first
comprehensive evidence-based assessment of land degradation and restoration.
“The dangers of land degradation are detailed for policymakers, together with a catalogue of corrective options, in the three-year assessment report by more than 100 leading experts from 45 countries, launched (at the same IPBES meeting as the above 4 regional Biodiversity reports).
“Produced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the report was approved at the 6th session of the IPBES Plenary in MedellÃn, Colombia.
“Providing the best-available evidence for policymakers to make better-informed decisions, the report draws on more than 3,000 scientific, Government, indigenous and local knowledge sources. Extensively peer-reviewed, it was improved by more than 7,300 comments, received from over 200 external reviewers.
“Rapid expansion and unsustainable management of croplands and grazing lands is the most extensive global direct driver of land degradation, causing significant loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services – food security, water purification, the provision of energy and other contributions of nature essential to people. This has reached ‘critical’ levels in many parts of the world, the report says.
“With negative impacts on the well-being of at least 3.2 billion people, the degradation of the Earth’s land surface through human activities is pushing the planet towards a sixth mass species extinction,” said PECS-SC member Prof. Robert Scholes (South Africa), co-chair of the assessment with Dr. Luca Montanarella (Italy). “Avoiding, reducing and reversing this problem, and restoring degraded land, is an urgent priority to protect the biodiversity and ecosystem services vital to all life on Earth and to ensure human well-being.”
“The dangers of land degradation are detailed for policymakers, together with a catalogue of corrective options, in the three-year assessment report by more than 100 leading experts from 45 countries, launched (at the same IPBES meeting as the above 4 regional Biodiversity reports).
“Produced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the report was approved at the 6th session of the IPBES Plenary in MedellÃn, Colombia.
“Providing the best-available evidence for policymakers to make better-informed decisions, the report draws on more than 3,000 scientific, Government, indigenous and local knowledge sources. Extensively peer-reviewed, it was improved by more than 7,300 comments, received from over 200 external reviewers.
“Rapid expansion and unsustainable management of croplands and grazing lands is the most extensive global direct driver of land degradation, causing significant loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services – food security, water purification, the provision of energy and other contributions of nature essential to people. This has reached ‘critical’ levels in many parts of the world, the report says.
“With negative impacts on the well-being of at least 3.2 billion people, the degradation of the Earth’s land surface through human activities is pushing the planet towards a sixth mass species extinction,” said PECS-SC member Prof. Robert Scholes (South Africa), co-chair of the assessment with Dr. Luca Montanarella (Italy). “Avoiding, reducing and reversing this problem, and restoring degraded land, is an urgent priority to protect the biodiversity and ecosystem services vital to all life on Earth and to ensure human well-being.”
In
2013, we featured, in ‘Messing with Mother Nature’, a major report published by
UNCTAD, a United Nations organization, entitled ‘Wake Up Before It Is Too Late!’,
to feed the world, with billions more people per projections, in a time of
Climate Change.
And
chemical intensive Big Agriculture is also a major contributor of greenhouse
gases to increase climate change, literally tons of CO2, N2O and CH4 (Methane).
It also pours Nitrates into our water and into our aquifers and drinking water,
making it toxic (example, Blue Baby Syndrome), and nitrates and phosphates are causing
Algae Blooms and Dead Zones around the world.
One of
the worst parts of chemical intensive Big Ag is that it is causing us to lose
our Soil to massive erosion, especially with the major downpours of Climate
Change. We are literally watching our farmlands wash down our rivers, sometimes
at rates, per a study in Iowa, of as much as 50 tons per acre per year.
Regarding
Land Degradation, Land Use is another issue. In order to open up more farmland,
we are converting our Forests which absorb carbon dioxide to Big Ag farmland,
which literally pours CO2, N2O and CH4 (Methane). Besides erosion, we are also
losing our Soil to Salinization and Desertification. We urge to read our post,
The Story on Soil, which covers this all important issue.
Instead of Chemical Intensive Big Ag,
Regenerative Organic Agriculture, the promotion of small, organic farms and
Crop Biodiversity, holds many answers to these problems. It is also an answer
to how to reverse Climate Change, by burying carbon back into the Soil, making the Soil, (without
pesticides, herbicides, and synthetic fertilizers) and the food grown in it tastier
and healthier, and improving yields. Dead non-productive Soil can be
regenerated and made productive. It can be restored. We have the experts who
know how to do it.
Part 6: 2016 IPBES Assessment
Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food
Production
Part 7: Other Recent Reports on Climate and Biodiversity
There
have been many scientific reports in recent years, all of which have examined
the serious deterioration of the climate and the natural world. Confirming everything
we told you about the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA) in this report,
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), headquartered in Geneva,
Switzerland, just published their State of the Climate 2017 – Extreme Weather
and High Impacts. Here are two graphics from this new consummate report. Just
check them out. They say a lot. And a link to the full report can be found in
our documents section, as with all of these.
.
Courtesy of the World
Meteorological Organization
A new
extensively peer-reviewed study was just published on March 13, 2018, entitled,
‘Wildlife in a Warming World: The Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity’,
attributed to the University of East Anglia (UK), James Cook University
(Australia), and the World Wildlife Fund. This study is further confirmation of
the IPBES Report on Biodiversity, that we talked about in part four, One of
their findings is that “as much as
half of wildlife and 60% of plants in the world’s richest forests could be at
risk of extinction in the next century if stronger efforts aren’t taken to
combat climate change, according to a new report on the risks of rising global
temperatures.”
On May
21, 2018, a very extensive Rutgers University led study was published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA (PNAS), called, ‘The Biomass
Distribution on Earth’. (Here, they’re not talking at all about the fraud of
burning biomass for electricity.) This is a census of all the biomass (the
weight of all living things, plant and animal) on earth. One of their findings
is that the biomass of all humans and ruminants (cows and similar livestock)
together, is 96% of the biomass of all mammals currently on Earth. That means
the biomass (weight) of all remaining mammals on earth, including dogs, cats,
and all wild animals, including big mammals, like whales and elephants, and all
the little mammals, like squirrels, mice and rats, comprises just the remaining
4%. Exponential growth of human population and of the meat they eat, 96%of the
biomass of all mammals on Earth, are in many ways harming biodiversity and
dominating the biosphere. This extensive Biomass study is a first of its kind.
The
last report we’ll include in this section is from the UN’s World Health Organization (WHO), which
published a major report on February 1, 2018, entitled ‘Climate Change and
Health’, about how the rising temperatures are causing a myriad of health
problems around the globe, which will continue to worsen, unless and until we
get a handle on controlling the rise in temperatures, in other words
controlling our emissions.
Part 8: Accumulation of Toxins in
Air and Drinking Water
We
could not write a report referring to environmental tipping points, without
referring to the accumulation of toxins in the environment, and the dangers of
exposure to us all, especially to children, not just because they’re small, but
because they are in key stages of development.
Almost daily, we hear of communities that are
being told not to drink the water, tap water or well water, because it contains
heavy metals or toxins in excessive amounts.
It is
well known that air quality puts us all at risk for lung disease and cancer,
and our kids, rich and especially the poor, due to where they live, are
developing asthma and childhood allergies and childhood diseases (and
conditions like Autism) at ever increasing rates. We covered this subject
comprehensively in our article, ‘Living in a Toxic World’, and, especially if
you have children, we urge you to read that, as well as a previous article
called ‘Chemistry Gone Wild’, on the subject of Endocrine Disrupter Chemicals
(EDCs).
Recognizing
the peril our children are in just living in this toxic world, the EPA joined
with the NIEHS (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences) to produce
a very comprehensive 120-page study of all the environmental causes for our
kids' illnesses. The Children's Environmental Health and Disease Prevention
Research Center's impact report is entitled, Protecting Children's Health Where
They Live, Learn, and Play. Yes, we are poisoning our children at crucial
stages in their development with harmful toxins, and this very well produced
120-page report with colorful graphics creditably covers the subject.
Time Magazine reports on it, “The sweeping report chronicles the
toll of pesticides, industrial chemicals and air pollution on the health of
America’s children. It summarizes the results of a 20-year effort by the two
federal agencies, which have invested $300 million on dozens of long-term studies
of American children. The research links everyday exposures to BPA, flame
retardants and pesticides with asthma, cancer, and brain and behavioral
problems. It estimates the cost of environmentally related diseases in children
at $76 billion a year. These findings are a striking difference from the
direction of the EPA under the Trump administration.”
This
amazing report was completed and remarkably produced under Trump, Pence, and
Pruitt in October, 2017, who had, and have, no intention of doing anything
about it. In fact, they and many Republican Senators and Congressmen and State
Officials are doubling down, and intend to do just the opposite of protecting
ourselves and our children. They fully intend to do everything possible to
dismantle all the “Regs”, as though all regulations, to keep the air and water
safe, were bad.Their wish list includes dismantling the Clean Water Act and
Rules, the Clean Air Act and Rules and the ESA, (Endangered Species Act), and
many Americans are cheering them on, in the illusory name of “Economy”, while even their kids and grandchildren are getting
sick.
This well
produced report, published under the Trump administration, is the ‘smoking gun’
on Pruitt's not banning, as the EPA had intended, the dangerous child brain-wasting
pesticide, Chlorpyrifos, applied to non-organic apples, fruits and vegetables,
while a clear and present danger to children and their life-long development, is clearly discussed as a real danger on pages 29 and 53 of this report. The link is included in the Documents section. Look at pages 29 and 53, and see for yourself. Are American babies not worth protecting? Does the US Health Department and Education Department wish to pay for the needs of impaired children, who will be equally impaired as adults? Of course, Pruitt's decision to not ban this pesticide took place
directly after Dow Chemical, it's principal producer, donated a million dollars to Trump's inauguration
committee.
Part 9: Climate Tutorial in Federal
Climate Trial –
San Francisco and Oakland versus Big
Oil
On March 21, 2018, Climate Change was on
trial in federal court in San Francisco. San Francisco and Oakland are suing
five Big Oil companies for billions in damages from global warming and sea
level rise, with coastal flooding threatening the Bay area. They plan to use
any award for adaptation, building seawalls, relocation, etc. In this decision
on whether to allow this lawsuit to go to trial, tired of hearing all the conflicting
arguments bandied about, Judge William Allsup ordered both sides to give him a
"Tutorial" on the "the best available science on global warming
and sea level rise". Each side was given two hours and 14 questions for
which he demanded answers. A high priced attorney from Chevron spoke on behalf
of the oil companies, and instead of voicing Climate Change Denial, he
surprisingly referred to, and largely agreed with, the finding of the U.N's
2013 IPCCC report, which was the basis of the Paris Agreement, (very close to
the same findings as the 2014 National Climate Assessment), that the world was
warming and would continue to warm from the human causes of burning fossil fuels.
Rather than continuing to deny the science,
the oil companies must have decided that any such argument would be so
unsupportable, that their better strategy was to agree with factual,
evidence-based science, but to deny their own liability, on the basis that the
emissions from burning their oil was government regulated. If the District
Court of Northern California,( which has recently demanded the production of
documents from the oil companies, which indicates the judge has not yet made a
decision), agrees to let this suit go to trial and awards damages, there will
almost surely be subsequent similar trials all over the United States, since
this is the first time cities have ever sued oil companies for climate change.
Whatever the outcome, that first time ever
"Climate Tutorial" the judge ordered, and which took place on March
21, 2018, is now on record in federal court with a federal transcript available,
to be used as evidence in future climate trials., and since Chevron and Exxon,
and all the Big Oil companies are multi-national corporations, this transcript
can be used in courts all over the
world., whether against fossil fuel companies, or against national, state and
local governments, like the kids' climate trials that we're about to discuss.
This is big!
Also
big, is that, by accepting real climate science, by doing the best thing they
could do strategically to defend their case, Chevron, for the oil companies,
pulled the rug right out from under the API (American Petroleum Institute) and
from all the Koch and Bradley-funded denial groups like Heritage, Heartland,
American Enterprise Institute, Americans for Prosperity, American Legislative
Exchange Council, Cato Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Institute
for Energy Research, etc., who have devoted 50 years to denying that climate
change was even taking place. These climate denial organizations may well be
freaking out, deciding whether or not to change their position on climate now
that the oil companies pulled the rug out from under their ignorant denial,
with their, on the record, acceptance, in this “Tutorial” on the Science of
Climate Change.
Part 10: ‘Our Children’s Trust’
Climate Trials – Federal and 9 States
“Exercising
my ‘reasoned judgment,’ I have no doubt that the right to a climate system
capable of sustaining human life is fundamental to a free and ordered society.”
- U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken
“Our Children's Trust (youthvgov.org) elevates the voice of
youth to secure the legal right to a stable climate and healthy atmosphere for
the benefit of all present and future generations.
Julia
Olson, Chief Legal Counsel, Executive Director, and Founder of the
organization, is currently managing youth climate lawsuits against 9 States,
and against the United States. 21 kids from across the country,
now with ages ranging from 10 to 21, many of whom, along with their families, have already
been touched by Climate Change, and they're suing the government.
James
Hansen, renown pioneer and, sometimes controversial, Climate Scientist, who
formerly worked for NASA, and testified before the Senate on Climate Change as early as 1988,
provided the evidence-based science, the basis for these lawsuits, and to be
used all over the world. His 2013 study is called, ‘Assessing
"Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to
Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature, more recently updated in
a new study named, Young People’s Burden in October 2016, and an even newer
study called, Young People’s Burden: Negative CO2 Emissions, in July, 2017.
In our video section, we’re including a video he did on this study with his
granddaughter,Sophie, a plaintiff in the federal ‘Our Children’s Trust’ case, and she will also be testifying.
In the
words of Julia Olson, “Youth filed their constitutional climate lawsuit,
called Juliana v. U.S.,
against the U.S. government in the U.S. District Court for the District of
Oregon, in 2015. Earth Guardians is also an organizational plaintiff
in the case.
“Their
complaint asserts that, through the government's affirmative actions that cause
climate change, it has violated the youngest generation’s constitutional rights
to life, liberty, and property, as well as failed to protect essential public
trust resources.
“The
fossil fuel industry initially intervened in the case as defendants, joining
the U.S. government in trying to have the case dismissed. In April 2016, U.S.
Magistrate Judge Thomas Coffin recommended denial of both of motions
to dismiss. U.S. District Court Judge Ann Aiken upheld Judge Coffin's
recommendation, with the issuance of an historic November 10, 2016 opinion
and order denying the motions. When the defendants sought an interlocutory
appeal of that order, Judge Aiken denied their motions in
June 2017.
“In
June 2017, Judge Coffin issued an order releasing the fossil fuel
industry defendants from the case, and setting a trial date for February 5,
2018 before Judge Aiken at the U.S. District Court of Oregon in Eugene.
”In
July 2017, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals requested attorneys for youth
plaintiffs submit a response to the government's petition for "writ
of mandamus" and invited the District Court to respond as well. The
District Court responded via letter and the youth plaintiffs
filed their answer. Further, eight amicus briefs were filed with
the Ninth Circuit in support of the youth plaintiffs.
“Pursuant
to its order, a three judge panel of the Ninth Circuit, made up of Chief
Justice Sidney Thomas, and Circuit Justices Alex Kozinski and Marsha Barzon
heard oral arguments on December 11, 2017. Watch a video recording of the oral
arguments below. Youth plaintiffs, now age 10 to 21, and their attorneys look
forward to the panel decision. Eric Grant, representing the Trump
administration and the U.S. government, argued that the case be dismissed.
Justice Kozinski subsequently resigned and was replaced on the panel by Circuit
Justice Michelle Friedland.
“Due to
the Trump administration’s drastic tactics before the Ninth Circuit Court of
Appeals to silence the voices of youth and keep science out of the courtroom”, the trial did not begin on February 5th, as originally
scheduled.
But, “on
March 7, 2018 the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the Trump
administration’s “drastic and extraordinary” petition for writ of
mandamus. During a public case management conference on April 12, 2018,
U.S. Magistrate Judge Thomas Coffin set October 29, 2018 as the trial date for Juliana v. United States.”
When
the judge set this new court date, he warned the Trump administration that the
court would accept no further delay tactics. This is a matter of constitutional
and human rights of children to grow up in a habitable world. The remedy sought
is not monetary, but “legally-binding, science-based climate recovery policies”, to give our
kids and us a chance.
If you
can, please support these young plaintiffs and Our Children’s Trust with
donations. It takes a lot of money every step of the way. Help them have their
day in court. It could be a way to help every one of us.
Part 11: #ThisIsZeroHour Youth
Climate March – July 21, 2018
The Zero
Hour movement started with the founder, 16-year-old Jamie Margolin, a fierce
climate justice advocate, who has been working tirelessly for the last few years
to move her home state of Washington to adopt common sense climate change laws.
Frustrated by the inaction of politicians and the fact that youth voices were
almost always ignored in the conversation around climate change and the
profound impact that it would have on young people, Jamie started gathering
several of her friends in the summer of 2017 to start organizing something big,
something hard to ignore!
“Jamie
was inspired by the mass mobilizations like the Women’s March that had occurred
in early 2017 and realized that a national day of mass action, led by youth,
would be an ideal platform to ensure that young voices were not only centered
in this conversation, but that politicians and adults would hear their voices
loud and clear!
“By the
end of the summer, young activists from across the country, from diverse
backgrounds, had joined the team and the Zero Hour movement had started taking
shape.
“At the
start of 2018, a few founding members traveled to Washington, D.C. to lay key
groundwork for this growing movement—and meet each other in person for the very
first time! With the help of key partners who have come on board to support our
vision, we are well on our way to organizing a movement that will ensure that
our elected officials and leaders at every level of society stop ignoring the
needs of young people and their right to a safe, healthy, and clean
environment.
“Our team of youth leaders and adult mentors are more than just
a collective—we have become a movement family! This vision depends on people
like you willing to support and uplift youth by making this vision your own. We
would love for you to join our family and come write the next chapter of our
story together, as we plan our march and advocacy day in Washington, D.C.
“Zero Hour is not mobilizing just for the sake of mobilizing. We
the youth are demanding an end to business as usual on climate change, so we
have created science-backed demands for both our leaders, and the general
public to take action on. On July 19th youth are taking over Capitol Hill to
deliver our demands to our politicians. We are giving them the exact asks that
we are marching for—so they have no excuse not to take action.
“We
will prepare for our mobilization by having art builds around the DC area to
celebrate our movement and earth through art. In any movement, it is important
to have community building, because community is the best antidote to
hopelessness. Through these art builds we are building our community and
beautiful banners and signs for The Youth Climate March on July 21, 2018.
“In
Washington D.C., youth will march on the National Mall for the demands that we
delivered to our leaders during The Youth Climate Lobby Day. We will rally and
highlight the voices and stories of youth on the frontlines of the climate
crisis. Then, we will flood the streets as a demonstration of youth power and
show how #ThisIsZeroHour demands we act on climate change.”
As good as these kids are, not just Jamie, but every single one
of them, and even though they’re working tirelessly for free, it takes money to
pull off a big event like this, and they could use any help you might be able
to offer in the form of donations, however small. Adults, they remind us, have
been ineffectual in tackling Climate Change, as borne out in this report.
Please help our kids make an impact. March with them, also in Sister Marches
around the country on July 21, and please donate to ThisIsZeroHour.org.
Part 12: Beyond the Tipping Points –
Final Thoughts
The
World Scientists Warning to Humanity of 1992 was not the first warning, which
makes the Second Notice in 2017, the third warning. 20 years before 1992, in
1972, a group of luminaries, including the late Renaissance Canadian Pierre
Trudeau, (father of Justin Trudeau), who called themselves the Club of Rome,
commissioned a study, the result of which was published as, The Limits to
Growth, which turned out to become the best-selling environmental book
ever, having sold 12 million copies, and having been translated into 37
languages. Speaking of youth, the average age of the scientists hired to do
this study was 26 ½ years old, and they produced the first rudimentary environmental
computer models on a computer, at MIT the size of a room, with processing power
less than your laptop, and the graphs were printed on a huge, dot-matrix ink-ribbon
printer. It is staggering that these scientists, so long ago, foresaw so many of the problems
we’re facing today. We covered this amazing story in our article, Living in aToxic World part 10, and we urge you to read it. The messages about ‘exponential
growth in a finite world’ are key to solving our problems, and this story of
how they put this together is fascinating. The problem is, there have been
many keys, also in the 1992 and 2017 warnings, but society has not yet chosen
to turn them.
The
lack of action on climate change is an unprecedented crime. Or, as noted in
this new book, Unprecedented Crime, Climate Science Denial and Game Changersfor Survival, with a foreword by Dr. James Hansen (who was mentioned earlier in this
report, and don’t miss the video with his granddaughter, Sophie, a plaintiff in
the Our Children's Trust Federal climate trial, in the video section).
Dr. James Hansen, former NASA chief climate scientist, professor, pioneer and grandfather:
Dr. James Hansen, former NASA chief climate scientist, professor, pioneer and grandfather:
“Peter Carter and Elizabeth Woodworth
make an overwhelming case that the public, especially young people,
are victims of 'Unprecedented Crime'. And the fossil fuel industry, they
explain, are not the only perpetrators. There has
been extensive collusion and denial. Fortunately, Carter and Woodworth do much more than expose the crimes
against humanity—they also present actions that people can
take to alleviate the consequences for today's public and for
future generations.”
What’s
happening right now with the Climate, and how it’s affecting the Weather, is,
also, unprecedented. We have levels of Greenhouse Gases, CO2, methane, and
nitrous oxide, in our atmosphere, that have no precedent in over 800,000 years,
when temperatures were 2 to 3°C warmer, and sea levels were 15 to 25 meters
higher. The water vapor in our atmosphere, due to unprecedented warmth in our
oceans, and the evaporation from heat over land, is also a very powerful
greenhouse gas, and is helping make both temperatures and precipitation events ever
more unprecedented. Ellicott City, Maryland near Washington, DC, just got hit
with massive flooding from a deluge type rain storm for the second time in two
years, causing massive destruction.
In 2017
alone, Americans were harmed in devastating “500 years floods” in 20 different
States, losing their homes, their possessions, their income, and, in some
cases, their lives. This is beyond the thousands of deaths from floods all over
the world with similar deluges, months worth of rain in hours. And the
wildfires have reached frightening unprecedented proportions all around the
globe, and droughts are devastating large areas of the world, and have severely
limited water availability. We recommend you read Weather Extremes and the JetStream, in order to reach an understanding of what is happening to the jet
streams contributing to this extreme weather, and The Science of Superstorms to bring you up-to-date
with the latest, written by climate scientist, Paul H. Beckwith.
We recommend you read an article we wrote in 2014, Weather Extremes and the Jet Stream,
where you can gain an understanding of the mechanics of the Jet Stream in the
New Normal of Climate Change, resulting in Extreme Weather events. But, Paul
has shown us that the Jet Stream has changed a bit since this article was
published, and though it is still meandering North and South causing the same
storms and droughts described, the Jet Stream is becoming even weaker
and less defined, and is it’s now meandering even further, and has been seen more
than once this past winter to shoot warm air all the way to the North Pole (in the
24 hour darkness of winter), and, all the way South to the Equator, and has even
been found to have crossed the Equator, joining into the Southern Hemispheric
Jet Stream.
The New Normal is not normal. The climate has already
changed, and is still changing, and the changes are accelerating. The anomalies of
winds and ocean currents shooting warmth all the way to the North Pole in the
darkness of winter, as we’ve experienced in the last two years, is
unprecedented. and is one of the factors that is causing the Arctic to warm
twice as fast as the rest of the world, and, in turn, is contributing to the way the Jet
Stream is misbehaving, bringing Weather Extremes all over the world.
The
bottom line is that we’re dealing with a full-blown emergency, and we have to
take action commensurate with the threat. I’d venture to say that climate
scientists, Paul H. Beckwith, Eric Holthaus, James Hansen, and even, I believe, Katherine Hayhoe, and Michael E
Mann, a contributor to the IPCCC, would agree with elevating Climate to
EMERGENCY status. The Paris Agreement just won’t do it (keep the world below 1.5 Celsius of warming). Though it is a baby
step forward that the world had to take, and is better than nothing, and the US
should not be withdrawing from it, the voluntary “Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions” with no overview and no verification, set up by the
Paris Agreement, is not nearly enough.
Our
best reason for optimism is the activism on Climate that we’re seeing in the youth.
Just as insistent and eloquent as the Gun Control kids, they understand that what’s
happening to our planet is not normal, that it’s not OK. In many cases, they’ve
seen Climate Change with their own eyes, and have seen the pain it has caused
their families, friends, and neighbors, and they won’t hear any of the
BullShit, that it’s not really happening, when they know it is. And these kids
won’t take ‘no’ for an answer, when it comes to protecting their, and all of
our, futures. Many of these kids are almost of voting age, and when they are
able to vote, we might find ourselves amazed by the power of these kids, and
what they can accomplish. And I’m not just talking about United States kids.
There are kids all over the world as motivated as our kids, who have faced or
know of friends and neighbors who have faced climate tragedies as bad or worse,
and they are taking action, politically, legally, and lifestyle related, to
make a difference.
As I’ve
said before, there are billions of us, and few of them (the 1%), but the only way we will
prevail on the fossil fuel establishment, and on the politicians, the
bureaucrats, and law enforcement that support them, will be to make this
movement a transnational effort.
We’ll
end with quotes from two eco-philosophers, one, an 89 year old, named Joanna
Macy, and the other, the at-that-time 14-year-old
indigenous activist rapper/eco-philosopher (and a founder of EarthGuardians),
Xuihtezcatl, who is now 17 years old, a plaintiff in the Federal, and also a
plaintiff in one of the State Climate Trials mentioned earlier in this report,
and he, and a lot of these kids, are an inspiration to us all.
“If you want an adventure, boy what a time to
choose to be alive! Don’t waste time in self-pity over darkness. Don’t waste
time trying to figure out better circumstances, that you might like. You were
born into this, and you’re here to love it, and see that it goes on.” Joanna
Macy - eco-philosopher
“Every living system that we see is
unraveling…Our planet is collapsing. And in the light of a collapsing world,
what better time to be born than now, because this generation gets to rewrite
history, gets to leave our mark on this earth, because we will be known as the
generation, as the people on the planet that brought forth a healthy, just, and
stable world for every generation to come, because this generation of people
gets to create the rebirth, gets to co-create and re-create this new world of
sustainability, of justice, of equity, for all peoples on earth. And we are the
generation of change. We are the generation, ‘Rise’.” Xiuhtezcatl – activist/rapper/eco-philosopher
Part 13: Message to our Readers
Once
again, we will probably be accused of “sensationalism” for this article. Ten
major climate and environmental studies and assessments were published in
recent months. If we weren’t to have reported on these landmark scientific
reports, we wouldn’t have been doing our job. You’ll note much of our report to
be direct quotes taken verbatim from the studies themselves, (and which we’ve
included with links to the full text in the document section of this report,
should you wish to look further). We didn’t make anything up, and we certainly
didn’t exaggerate the severity of the situation that is portrayed in these
reports. So, if you find our article “sensational”, that’s all the more reason
to heed the warnings, and please don’t blame the messenger.
Instead
of going through the documents and videos in paragraph form, as we’ve always
done in the past in this section, this time we have so many, 12 documents and 9
videos, that we decided to give you any notes we felt we must in parentheses
right below the document or video to which it refers. For the most part, we’ll
let the titles speak for themselves. And if we’re missing a video, we should
have included, forgive us; it was all we could do to narrow it down to 9, and
it is all the way up to 9, only because we couldn’t leave any 1 of these out.
Since
the last two documents were not mentioned in any of the text in this report, I’d
like to give you one or two notes now on why they’re included..
The 12th Document is entitled, ‘Terra Viva -
Our Soil, Our Commons, Our Future - A new vision for Planetary Citizenship’.
It’s 104 pages long (2 pages per PDF page), with a Table of Contents right
after the intro. In writing ‘Terra Viva’, with her many international
associates on that project, Dr. Vandana Shiva, the leader of the Seed Freedom
movement, envisioned a society which “exchanges a linear process of exploitation
of land and resources with a circular process based on reintegration and
regeneration, which in turn guarantees resilience, sustainability, justice, and
peace. This new agriculture (culture) is part of a process which aims to
redefine the very concepts of democracy and freedom. It is capable of
generating both a new economy and a new democracy; Earth Democracy.”
Beautifully written, Terra Viva makes so much sense.
The 13th Document is Pope Francis’s 184
page ‘Encyclical Letter, Laudato Si - Of The Holy Father Francis – On Care For
Our Common Home’. It’s not just about Climate Change. Besides Human Rights and
many related subjects, including the right to Food and Water, it covers most
every environmental subject, including Biodiversity, GMOs, Air and Soil and
Water Pollution, Our Oceans, Forests, and more. We encourage you not to miss,
at very least, the introduction, and pages 9 to 12, where the Pope introduces
St. Francis of Assisi, after whom he named himself when he was elected Bishop
of Rome. St. Francis was a total nature loving “hippie”, very much like the
spiritual environmentalist, John Muir. There’s a Table of Contents at the end,
and we encourage you to peruse the Science in the words of the Pope, and see
how he presents it. In general, the scientific community was very supportive of
the accuracy of his presentation and conclusions.
Whether
you are a religious person, and, like the Pope, you accept the realities of
science and the natural world, or whether you are an atheist, who believes
solely in the science, you’ll equally see how relevant and urgent all of these
subjects are.
One more
thing, the 7th video is a two hour recording of a webcast on January 31, 2018, the
day after Trump’s first State of The Union address, of a program in Washington
DC, called “FossilFreeFAST”, hosted by Reverend Lennox Yearwood and Bill
McKibben along with the folks at 350.org, and with many other sponsors. Rather
than suggesting you just sit there and watch it, I’m asking for you to use it
in organizing grass-roots watch parties and fundraisers for activism on climate,
for raising donations for youthvgov.org, or for ThisIsZeroHour.org, or for
350.org, Greenpeace.org or Avaaz.org or for any many environmental organization.
Find a room with a big TV, and it’s time to party (!!!), while hearing some
truly inspirational stuff. It includes a little music, and early on, it
features Bernie Sanders on Climate Change, who, as always, knocks it out of the
park, (“What we are talking about is
nothing less than the future of this planet.”- Bernie Sanders). You’ll hear
from many incredible activist speakers with incredible stories from every
corner of our nation. “No, we are not alone.”, as Michael Franti of Spearhead
reminds us (but, not in this video). After working hard on climate action,
banging our heads against the walls, it’s nice to take a break, and feel like
you’re part of a larger community, and watching this video, will do just that.
The
youth from every country in the world, who take Climate Change as a real ‘existential
threat’, are our best hope for change. They’re done accepting the ‘BullShit’,
and as soon as they can, you can bet, they will join us in voting for Climate Action.
We thank all of our US and international readers (from
over 150 nations). We
really do appreciate you taking the time to read our articles. And we
extra-appreciate when you refer them to friends. That’s where our
readers can really make a difference. If we can make people aware of
the Science behind what they obviously see happening, and they gain an
understanding, and share that understanding with enough friends, we’ll have
more of a chance of taking real #ClimateAction, and actually do something about
it.
We love getting feedback. Our
email address is: woodstockearthblog@gmail.com, or if you prefer Twitter,
you can use: @Mikethemikeman1. For the sake of our people, our families, and
Mother Earth, we encourage all of you, as charter members of Woodstock Earth,
to spread the word and help get these stories out.
Part 14:
Documents
3. Climate Science
Special Report (CSSR) - Volume 1 of 2017 NCA4 –
9.
WWF Wildlife in a Warming World (PDF)
12.
Terra Viva (PDF)
Part 15: Videos
Crisis Inherited:
The Our Children's Trust Story
Our Children's Trust: An Introduction
James Hansen and Sophie Kivlehan,
his granddaughter, and plaintiff in Federal Climate Trial, discuss ‘Young
People's Burden’ research
THE YOUTH CLIMATE MARCH
#ThisIsZeroHour
THE WISDOM TO SURVIVE:
Climate Change, Capitalism & Community—Trailer
Our Best, Last Chance
with Eric Holthaus, at Earth Games on Tap 2018
FossilFreeFAST Livestream 1-31-18
The Climate Resistance
Kids Head to Court to Fight Climate Change
MSNBC – Morning Joe
Click Here for the MSNBC video
Activists Condemn Failure of 2017 UN Climate Talks
to Address Interrelated Crises of
Climate, Energy & Inequality
Amy Goodman’s Democracy Now
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